2017 – 2019 ~ Trends & Predictions

2019 - 5 - Blog post graph

Greetings Friends!

I am excited to share my research with you about the First Four Months of 2017, 2018 & 2019 in Pierce County.  The above graph is from the NWMLS: January, 2017 – April, 2019 ~ Pierce County Residential ~ Green Line:  Available/For Sale homes; Blue Line: Pended/Under Contract homes.  (This does not show SOLDS.  Pended homes are what is current, when buyers actually put the contract together and got mutual acceptance.  It is Real Time/Current Activity.)  The Red Boxes are January – April of each year, 2017, 2018, 2019.

The two green camel humps are Summer 2017 & Summer 2018 when the most homes came on the market/stayed on the market.  As you can see for both those years, the blue, pending line separates after the first few months of the year, leaving more homes on the market than buyers select to purchase.

Now, let’s look closer at those first 4 months!

2019 - 5 - Blog post graph 22019 - 5 - Blog Post graph 20182019 - 5 - Blog Post graph 2019

As you can see, 2017 & 2018 look fairly similar; parallel Active/Green with Pending/Blue lines.  2019: not so much!

2017: Continually more Actives/For Sales than those that Pended, but the buyers followed the sellers prices and availability. Steady.

.2018: Parallel line, again, but more that Pended than were Active/For Sale; showing a strong sellers’ market.  Steady.

2019: A different story.  The year started with limited/slow pending home sales, then was stalled further in February with the snow.  March & April saw a sudden a brisk pending market (blue line) with the number of active listings remaining steady with the number of buyers with accepted contracts quickly increasing.

2019 – May and Beyond ~ the graph is yet to be written!  Will the Actives and Pendings take more of a parallel route like in the last two years where sellers set their price and buyers followed suit?  Or, will it continue to be wiley like the first four months?

Predictions?

The housing market will separate out and be very specific for each area, not only in Pierce County but comparing Pierce/King/Thurston Counties. Comment by Aaron Terrazas, senior economist, Zillow.com :

    “Pierce County is without a doubt the hottest housing market in the region . . . 
   Perhaps the hottest market on the West Coast.”

Here in Pierce County we have affordability & job growth.  A great combination!

Predictions are for our Pierce County market to increase in value in 2019, about 11%, depending on the area.  King County is predicted to continue self-correcting with a value decrease of 2% as a whole, again, depending on the area.

Stay Tuned!

Thinking of selling or buying and want to know the best time?  That is a specific conversation for each client!  And, I love those conversations!  Reach out and lets chat!

Enjoy the sunshine!

Rae Anne

 

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